100

USA vs China: Trade War? – VisualPolitik EN


Does the United States need to launch a commercial
war? Is the US economy in danger due to the huge trade deficit they carry along with them
each year? Is China competing in an unfair way? How can Donald Trump protect and defend the United States? Dear viewer, intentions are one thing… and results are another thing
entirely. That’s precisely what almost always happens
with protectionist policies: they’re aimed at doing one thing, but end up doing a very
different one. Donald Trump was very clear about this during
the election campaign that led him to the White House… and has continued to be just
as clear since he arrived in the Oval Office: protectionist policies are a fantastic idea. “Trump Signs New Tariffs On Steel And Aluminum
Into Law”. “Trump moves to crack down on China trade
with $60 billion in tariffs on imported products” “Trump proposes $100 billion in additional
tariffs on Chinese products”. So far, only the first tariffs have been approved,
such as those on steel and aluminum, and it excludes many US-allied countries. But according to the news… Trump is very,
very clear about one thing: that one of his main priorities is “fighting” the external
deficit, that is, reducing the difference between imports and exports. A difference of over 500 billion dollars per
year. And that’s where tariffs always come into
play. Something like, So my people want to buy foreign
products? Fine, tariffs will teach them. Now, let’s be fair. Many argue that Trump doesn’t really want
to get involved in a full-blown commercial war, and that the US president’s threats,
especially against China, are nothing more than a gamble, a way to force Xi Jinping’s
government into sitting and negotiating. And yes, that may be so. But since one never knows with Trump, just
in case, and to clear things up, I think we need to ask ourselves a few questions: Does it help the United States to open fire
and trigger a trade war? Are tariffs the best way to help the US economy? Is China breaking
the rules? Are they competing in an unfair way? Do we need to punish Beijing? Let’s see. A BAD PLAN FOR A NONEXISTENT PROBLEM Folks, here’s a question, what does a politician
want when he puts protectionist policies on the table? No, winning votes isn’t a valid answer.
Yes, I know, winning votes is every politician’s number one priority, but for that very reason…
let’s not cheat, let’s focus on the protectionist policies’ specific objectives. Well… I think we could say that the objectives
are usually: defending industrial jobs, punishing alleged unfair competition – usually by
poorer countries – and boosting the local economy. Now… those are the intentions… but the
results? If the United States starts a trade war with China, will it achieve those objectives? Well, let’s do this step by step: First of all, this is what Donald Trump says: Under my Administration, the theft of American
prosperity will end. We’re going to defend our industry and create a level playing field
for the American worker. Donald J. Trump Wow, thank goodness that politicians are here
to defend the American people… By the way, this is the same excuse he uses to prosecute
immigration: defending the American worker. There’s only one problem: The statistics show a very different reality. See, the US labor market is undergoing one
of its best moments in almost two decades. The unemployment rate is at around 4% and
the number of unfilled vacancies is growing like foam. The American economic machine is beginning
to suffer shortages of the most important input: labor. You heard that right. If migration policies don’t change, and
the economy doesn’t collapse of course, it is estimated that in the next 10 years,
the United States will have more than 8 million jobs to be filled. And this is actually happening quite intensely
in the Midwest, in states like Wisconsin, where there’s a lot of employment but very
few workers: “It’s great to have more people working
in Wisconsin than ever before, but it creates a challenge. We just essentially need more
people.” Tricia Braun, chief operating officer for the Wisconsin Economic Development Corp Right now, unemployment rates in the states
are below 3%… and new jobs are constantly emerging. For example, the Taiwanese technology group
Foxconn is investing more than 10 billion dollars in a gigantic campus to develop and
produce new smartphones, tablets and television screens. It will employ more than 13,000 people. This situation is so peculiar that state authorities
have been forced to launch an advertising campaign, for example for trains in Chicago
and here on YouTube to attract workers to the state. But… not only that…. See, the truth is that the manufacturing industry
now employs a lot fewer people than it did two decades ago, but do you think this is
this due to Chinese competition? Well… The numbers tell quite a different
story… not only is employment at its highest levels in the US’s economic history, industrial
production has also reached its highest levels. Yes, the industry hires fewer people, but
that doesn’t mean it produces less. What’s happening is that factories, thanks to robots
and technology, are becoming increasingly productive. Want an example? Let’s take a look at the
steel industry, which Trump said is being threatened by Chinese competition, which poses
a danger to national security… Well, the truth is that the US produces 70%
of the steel it consumes, for which only 3% is for military use – National security?
Ha! – and that, on top of that, China isn’t even among the top 10 suppliers. Yes, employment in the steel industry has
decreased to almost half in the last 10 years, but folks, the vast majority of jobs lost
aren’t due to China or international trade, but to technology. And a commercial war wouldn’t change this. But… as you can see, this isn’t precisely
bad: nowadays, in the United States, there are more jobs than ever, and the trade deficit…
well, despite what Trump may say, isn’t that high, being less than 3% of the GDP…
and in fact it has decreased considerably in recent years. We’re also forgetting some other very important
details… like for example, investments. Yes, you heard that right. The United States has a positive net investment
balance. That is, foreigners invest more in the United States than Americans do abroad,
which is obviously very good for the US economy’s future. In 2017, this positive balance surpassed
250 billion dollars. Think that’s all? Well, you are very, very
wrong. We don’t know if a commercial war would
decrease the external deficit… but it would have other, not exactly desirable, consequences.
Listen up. (THE CONSEQUENCES) Let’s say it loud and clear, the ones who’d
be most affected by a trade war against Chinese imports would be US companies. You heard that right. Buying cheaper materials
abroad decreases production costs for local industries. And if in addition, a foreign country, in
this case China, sells below cost, it’d be as if Beijing was subsidizing American
industries. And that doesn’t sound too bad, right? Don’t believe me? Well, take a look. We need to bear in mind that the United States
not only imports products to consume from China, they also import many intermediate
goods and capital goods, such as machinery. In fact, more than half of all imports from
China correspond to this type of product. So, here’s an essential question. What would
tariffs achieve? Well, precisely that: it would damage American
companies’ competitiveness. That is, it would increase the cost of producing
much more advanced goods, an aspect in which the North American industry is currently a
leader… this would mean decreasing their exports to the rest of the world as well as
the consumption capacity of Americans themselves. The result? Millions of jobs destroyed. For example… the new tariff on steel and
aluminum will make production – in the United States – of things that use steel and aluminum
– like cars or airplanes more expensive… and therefore less competitive… Will new tariffs have to be set on cars to
offset this higher local production cost? All this, my friends, explains why when in
2002 President George W. Bush imposed tariffs on imported steel, the toll was the destruction
of 200,000 jobs. This was a clear backfire of the intended policy. But there’s another very important detail:
when you set tariffs, the usual reaction is for the other party to defend itself. I’m
not saying it’s the right thing to do, but it happens. If the United States announces an additional
$100 billion list of tariffs, China has already fully prepared, and will not hesitate to immediately
make a fierce counter strike.” Gao Feng, China’s Commerce Ministry spokesman.) Imagine, for example, the case of Boeing.
China is the largest market for this company, and in the next few years it will deliver
hundreds of new aircrafts to this country. Well, a commercial war could damage their
long-term competitive position. China, for example, could favor other companies
such as Airbus and accelerate the development of a local industry. Yes, it seems difficult today… but in the
long term the consequences could be gigantic. And not only that. China could also resort
to other, less orthodox means. For example, let’s not forget that China is the largest
foreign debt owner for the United States. Would it be good for Washington if China stopped
buying debt or if they began decreasing securities to incite pressure? Clearly, the answer is No. Especially due
to the huge public deficit that the current administration is fueling. But… wait a moment, because there’s something
Trump is right about. (IS CHINA BREAKING THE RULES?) Donald Trump has one thing right: China isn’t
precisely a free market or a country that plays well. And it isn’t just about the fact that they
have high tariffs or that they favor local companies… the problem is, for example,
blackmailing large multinationals. For example, if foreign companies want to
sell freely in China, they have to ally with local partners… partners who can access
their technology… Yes, this technology transfer is a problem
in some way, because these Chinese companies use them to grow and compete… However… technological companies know what
they’re getting themselves into when they access the Chinese market. It has to be they who decide where to produce,
how to compete and what businesses to get involved in. Of course, this doesn’t mean that the US
government shouldn’t pressure or negotiate with China… but unleashing a commercial
war would be a terribly bad solution. As long as it’s just threats, the US should
be all right… but they have to be careful not to cross the line. That’s how large
crises start. Fortunately, unless Trump insists, it looks like this won’t happen. “China initiates WTO dispute complaint against
US tariffs on steel, aluminum products”. “President Xi Jinping announces plans to
open up China’s economy, including lowering tariffs for autos and enforcing the legal
intellectual property of foreign firms.” Now, having said this, let’s wait just a
moment, because there’s still a question on the table: how can the United States reduce
its trade deficit? Well, the best way to achieve this is with
bets, with structural policies, doing what great exporting powers like Germany and Switzerland
did: Favor saving – and therefore long-term productive
investment – decreases the public deficit, which boosts import consumption by overheating
the economy, and improves the competitiveness of local businesses. For example, reducing bureaucracy, favoring
talent attraction – yes, immigration – and lowering taxes, as the last fiscal reform
of the Republican Party did, which we talk about here in this video. Those are the paths… while a commercial
war… would be bad for everyone. And in any case, external deficit doesn’t have to be
bad. It all depends on how much the economy grows, what it’s used for or what happens
with the investment. But now it’s your turn, do you favor setting
tariffs on China? Leave your answer in the comments as well
as in the survey. I really hope you enjoyed this video, please
hit like if you did and don’t forget to subscribe to our channel for brand new videos
every Monday and Thursday. Also, don’t forget to check out our friends at the Reconsider
Media Podcast – they provided the vocals in this episode that were not mine! And as always,
thanks for watching!

Stephen Childs

100 Comments

  1. I truly support tariff war between us and china because this will divert there market in other countries like india where unemployment is still an issue.

  2. Whatsapp, Twitter, Google, FB all blocked in Commie china, while the chinese Baidu( =google), Wechat(=whatsapp) are freely accessable in the US and all western countries, is it reciprocal?

  3. You’re not clear enough why Trump is imposing tariffs and contemplating more. It’s a Mexican standoff for China to backdown on one sided trade restrictions. You only say “on 1 thing Trump is right”. So if he’s right on that 1 thing then he’s right in his strategy… assuming USA economy can beat Chinese economy in a “trade Mexican standoff”. Which he seems to be certain of. So why don’t you just hone in on that fundamental facet instead of giving ridiculous lecture on tariffs? I’ll tell you. Either you’re not as smart as Trump …. or you are terribly biased against him which is what you tend to project whenever you talk about him. Did it ever occur to you he may know more than you. Off your high horses Real Politik…

  4. Foxconn is coming BECAUSE Trump started the trade war, can you try to be fair?

  5. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUCZC9h-fno

    America's Superiority and Geography

  6. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=we-WWt_z7Yc&list=RDQFUNmeCW1Bc&index=18

  7. Why do you contradict yourself, when saying that "the American economic machine is suffering shortages of labor " and after that "the manufacturing industry now employs a lot fewer people than it did two decades ago". Somebody explain it to me, please.

  8. The trade war is a complex calculation made simple. 1st … wages in China is rising. 2nd … there are other countries coming up that can do what China does, and some of them are even cheaper. 3rd … USA remains the largest consumer on earth. There is only 1 way the war will end. Lastly … everything USA is doing, China has done. So i don't see what the argument is …

  9. USA, proud to start wars. Is there a single year that US doesn't start a war?

  10. As if the fake medias are not enough to spread lies… Here comes another pseudo

  11. TRUMP will do exactly reverse of everything he is doing today after winning 2020

  12. so trade imbalance with china costs the u.s. "only" 3 percent of it's GDP?
    that's still a lot of jobs AND we know that china closes much of it's domestic market from american made goods.

  13. Ask Chris Chappell over at china uncensored . com or @t for the way Huawei is trying to SCREW the WORLD with predator software that's to be installed with the new G5 network!

  14. Wow. This is so bias and wrong it makes me sick. All the reasons u give for not having a trade war are a direct result of Trump policies.
    This is fake propaganda. U should stick to top 10 list!!

  15. Classic Donaldou Bolton' TRUMPET Lanister.. Star BULLYING abd cry victim when us him that is Packing trillions of dollar'$ for his v€r $eas accounts like he'$ had been doing itt for decades!! Taking advantage s of of a 0ppørtunity
    By taking Some else money's and pack ittt!!! That alll !!

  16. usa already lost
    first word and they lost on first word
    TRADE
    that is when you give something for something
    -what you can give -like nothing??
    even damn iphones are made in china

  17. The USA had it's time… it's time for a new paradigm, bye bye USA. Hello China… All because of Tariffs .

  18. This video was written by ignorants…
    not once have I heard about the dumping China does to destroy american industries.

  19. no us tarrifs is ok what us have to do is to copy the chinese dirty tactic if any interntional company wants to open their business in the us they have to share their patern in design formula and technology so the us local companies can then us it to copy and even improve that specific business product trumps hatters is wrong china is the one who really started this feudal war and us is to clamsy to adapt and to compete while praising it self to be the most richest and strongest country by economy te us didnt even noticing that china is rapping their economy and us is doesnt doing anything to fight back 😆

  20. Is it just me or is "WAR" is the USA's favourite word? War on drugs, war on terror, trade wars, war on immigrants, etc.

    CHEAT DETECTED!: At 7:41, that Ford plant is in Oakville, Ontario, Canada. That is not a part of Trump's USA! 😛

  21. Never seen a video of you about USA without it being biased against “Orange man bad”

  22. Simon is completely off base. What does he care about the US economy?
    He is a US hater, it is evident in all of his videos. If you watch the video below you have a much clearer picture of why we are fighting the Trade War.

  23. The strength of a country is based on how much you export, not import….Trump trying to bring that back…ie export more & more…Trump tariffs are working

  24. Your wrong,,,China adds a min 55% tariff (tax) on all imported products,,,,if what you say is correct then China would gone backwards…….

  25. I just feel your dislike of trump effects the way you look at this. How much has China improved from there intellectual theft? On top of all of this look at there copy right laws that are not in forced. In my thinking China is to blame for the problem. Not Trump.

  26. America is a consumer society which also happens to be the richest nation in the world. As such, they will always have a trade deficit against an industrialized and producing nation such as China

  27. He (Trump) has no idea how much medium-long term damage his trade war will cause to the US. Furthermore, long-term transportation infrastructure investments such as high-speed rail is not even dreamed of yet!! Silicone valley etc. wont be able to carry/support the economy growth for ever! US is falling behind in more ways than one!

  28. Truly 🇺🇸 will be the Losers heart to understand but think 🤔 about it

  29. What is the name of first song in background? If somebody knows tell me please!

  30. I think trading with china is ok but China is not open market this is why American losing job, wealth technology to China tariff is good way counter this China one way trade

  31. US was fine when China doesn't exist at all !
    China is not important for US. US has to stop this bleeding

  32. I think he missed a point or 2 that may be important. Other economists bring this in. 1 Foxxcom can build that big plant the problem is for China is that USA companies are looking AND movie plant to other Asian countries. China is not cheap labor like it once was. 2 filling jobs remember the USA has more immigration then any other country in the world. This is legal immigration happening every year. 3. The selling of the USA debt. To sell it they will only get a fraction of the price so China needs to hold on to the debt as much or more as we need them to keep it. It is interesting listening to these guys you start to see if their politics is getting in their way of objectivity. To listen to one of them would be crazy you need to listen to a few and then figure the truth is somewhere between them.

  33. Trump is great for the rest of the World. He is waking everybody up. Just not the USA. He is hoodwinking them.

  34. So, when americans are saying that factories are shutting down in US and moving to mexico and china. They are lying?

  35. Simon neglected to show the role of State-owned enterprises and banks in the Chinese trade policies, subsidies, forced technology transfers, etc. But, I really have not expected any fair reporting from him

  36. Why is it so bad that there's a trade-imbalance? Isn't it inevitable, unless artificial limits creates absolute balance?

  37. Trump is assimilating and communicating information at a level his voters can understand.
    Showing Obama next to the low unemployment en economic growth is in my opinion pure fake news which is the underlying thread in all of your pod casts. What do I mean by this? You provide excellent content stats and geopolitical history but you do two things wrong. Inbetween your excellent facts you quitly thread in a narrative wrapped in small inaccurate statements and then at the end ask everyones opinion after planting the underlying narative…
    The trade war is simple. China has debt as a multiple of 2+ to their GDP built up from cheap global bank debt at low rates. Much of a communist controlled capitalism is inefficient frought with corruption therefore China has fundamemtal underlying problems lurking within their economy. The US and the West will win a trade War with China simply because having the balls to go into a fight of playing chicken will force China to ultimately concede due to the current timing being the worst possible time for China having their underlying lies about the real state of their economh being exposed.
    Hence my offence that you credit Obama with anything. He did not have the underlying enttepreneurial guts to do anything radical that enables true meaningful change within an 8 year term.
    At least Trump backs himself to take calculated risks with a radical global strategy which up to now at least appears to have results. Lastly re the imigration issue and leaning on other countries to invest into i imigrants education etc. who contribute a free return to their destination countries economy. Trump is 100% for this he merely says illigal and immigratiin without rules have a negative long term outcome. Test Norway hedge fund resulting from their delayed gratification oil money savings 1970 to 1990. The long game always Trumps the shoet game in my opinion

  38. Stop trade with China .made in America.is what we want and what we need .we need to build again

  39. As long as those immigrants are ethnic European, Asian and non-muslim ok but if aren't we don't need or want them because of better Eurasian non-muslims options

  40. President Trump is winning for America. China is dying. Game over. China is desperately trying to hide the fact that its economy is collapsing.

  41. Much neutral examination should have been done. Any trade war of any kind between two giant industrial and military powers would pull down the economies of the entire world. We must not forget that the whole world is more interconnected that it was a decade ago. The economic crisis among the half of the world population would affect every country.

  42. fox con lied to wisconsin about the number of workers, what they would produce and god knows how many other things.

  43. "It doesn't mean it works, it cant be improved "

    -N'kia (Wakanda's princess)

  44. Does the U.S. have the production ability and/or capacity to replace all the imports from China, now? How long would it take?

  45. may be a bit late but i think a trade war between the US and China would be good as it would weaken the UK's negotiation position in the brexit negotiations.

  46. 14:36 well Simon and his crew got it wrong….again. Trade war unlikely to happen? Ermm, two rounds of tariffs imposed and retaliatory counter measure by China also.. Over 15 months later the trade war is here and the US is hurting its own farmers and manufacturing industry (which Simon weirdly got right this time). Trump has also lied about China paying the tariff costs but the gullible and misinformed US public dont understand economics…He frickin still tweets as recently as 2 weeks ago that China is paying tariffs to the US!!!

  47. Nobody is demonizing legal immigration, only illegal "immigration". Do you know the difference?

  48. China is on the way to becoming the most powerful nation on earth. A tyrannical dictatorship with no democracy a place where they lock millions up in reprogramming camps. But people like you dont give a shit about that if it keeps the money your pocket. Just wait until China are calling all the global economic shots and see how that money in you and your kids pocket ends up.

  49. China is using us, here's a country u don't have a say.
    Seriously do u really want to open ur business in China.
    I don't think so

  50. You did kind of breeze over the whole currency manipulation thing. Just saying. It’s not like you have a agenda or anything. Just saying.:)

  51. For the first time I can clearly say that your analysis is absolutely flawed and shallow…there is no deep insight….China is on the verge of becoming global superpower and it's a very aggressive country with no good intentions….

  52. I am sure you have no idea what you are talking about…and last few minutes were like you are reading a newspaper editorial….grow up…

  53. trade deficit matters when you are printing IOUs and it's giving chinese competing businesses the upper hand.

  54. potus doesnt understand economics. if you want to punish china, maybe focus on the fact that they are trying their best to steal american secrets, rather than using a reason that does not hold any weight.
    ignorant americans think this man is the next messiah, however he does not know how business works let alone politics. rather than starting trade wars, why not use his influence to sign more deals with other countries yet use his power to stop other dictators (looking at you saudi) from killing american citizens.

    the whole world is laughing at america, despite their military strength and their economical power, america has become a laughing stock because A) he does not know how to use politics to his strength
    B) any country can know what he is going to do just by reading his tweets
    C) he is very insecure
    D) he is surrounded by evil people who are just using him to get their own objectives completed
    E) he does not understand how important immigrants are to the economy
    F) he needs to focus more on infrastructure, education, and healthcare rather than bitch on social media
    G) he needs to come down hard on pharmacompanies in america, due to the effects their greediness is having on americans
    H) the better the population and more money they have, the more they will spend

    other notes, why not focus on taxing the corporations rather than giving them tax cuts. Trump is doing opposite of what a president should be doing however less intellectuals individuals believes he is doing the right thing. yeah right

  55. I have to say this presenter does not know what he is talking about. He also sees dollars and cents. He would sell his own mother to buy something cheap.

  56. This was published 1 1/2 years ago. A lot has happened since. Who is more desperate for a deal? Who is running around like a headless chicken? Let's see who blinks. It'll be interesting to note how these guys are going to sell to their dumb supporters!

  57. You made a very crucial mistake. The trade war is not just about the economy, but on the contrary about geopolitics and power. Yes, the economy will suffer. But if they think they have to go to the PRC, they'd better do it now, if they could, rather thirty years later! A few thousand (even a few million) jobs are better today than millions of people will die in the future

  58. Yes the trade war was and still is good for the USA…
    So fuck off you liberal wanker…
    I'm done with this Leftists channel
    Unsubscribe

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *