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The Worst Year In Aviation – Coronavirus Impact


– This is the worst year
in aviation history. 14 days ago, if you walk
on an aeroplane like this, you wouldn’t imagine
the whole plane’s empty. But this is the reality. Today, I’m doing a very serious video talking about the impact of coronavirus on the aviation industry as whole. First thing I’d like to talk about is the travel ban currently in place, imposed by the many government to stop free-flowing
and people travelling. And the U.S. President, Donald Trump, has recently came out to restrict people from Euro shangun area
to the U.S. for 30 days. This now also include UK, Ireland as well. So, lots of country currently
require citizens or travellers to be quarantined if you
come from a high-risk area. We have seen, also, lots
of airport fully closed. This is an unpresented measure
to fight the coronavirus. IATA recently mentioned
the whole airline industry could lose up $113
billion due to the virus. – [Henry] I think that the IATA number, as daunting as it was a few weeks ago, could potentially increase in
the size of loses to airlines if we start to see governments impose further travel restrictions, or worse, mandate their
airlines to stop flying. So, if the virus
continues into the summer, or worse, if the virus doesn’t subside, if airlines are being told, “Don’t fly,” if countries are saying, “Don’t travel.” You know, the risk of bankruptcy continues and it increases with time. (swooshing) – A tray and tray liner
from China Airlines, ’cause so many of these
– Oh, tray liner (moans). – are going unused. – This is my friend Antony
from the desert graveyard. How does the coronavirus
hit the airline industry? What’s your take on this? – Yeah, so I think just about every day at every airline around the world, they’re experiencing what I would call net negative bookings. Essentially, more cancellations
are coming in every day than new bookings coming in. And so, at every airline’s headquarters, the network planners and
revenue management organisations are really grappling with three things. How much capacity do they have to reduce? Do they actually have to park fleets? And how much flight
schedule they’re actually going to put on the industry? But for those people who are
not afraid of catching the flu, this is a fantastic moment
to take advantage of. Empty flights means really low fares. And if there’s any destination that is, still has capacity, even
though it might be reduced, you can get some fantastic
bargains right now. – I know, I’m so tempted. I saw united has $138 one-way
from Las Vegas to Hawaii. I want to take my mom there. It’s so cheap. So, I thought about it
again and I said like, “What? “You know, I can’t take this chance. “My mother’s 70 year old. “I don’t want her to catch it, you know?” You know, there’s the trade
off between the low price and also your health, here. What’s more important, really? – So, Sam, if you think
about the industry, especially in Europe, with so
many low-cost carriers there who rely on revenue streams as part of their ability to stay afloat, I think that we’re going
to see more casualties in Europe now before any
other part of the world. – We saw the first
airline with this casualty out of the coronavirus. It’s actually Flybe. It’s not unexpected because Flybe was already in trouble in January. The UK government and Virgin Atlantic tried to bail them out, but they decided not to
use the taxpayers money on some airline who will run big losses. But we do expect to see more, right?
– Yeah. – [Sam] ‘Cause Italy’s been locked down. – Yeah, you think about Italy’s situation. I mean, Alitalia, as a traditional carrier in the home country, actually, hasn’t done well even when revenues were good across the continent. And so, imagine now, how
Alitalia’s going to feel. – Ask gov, I mean, any airline
that owns by a government, they have a better chance to survive it. – Yeah, so that’s a good point. Any airlines that owned by government, they are likely to receive cash injection. – Sam, I feel so sorry for Norwegian. They’ve started off
with their new services going on in Argentina. Then they run into the Max problem, Now, they’ve run into
the coronavirus problem. They’ve let, what 50%, 60% of their people that work for them go already. How can they hold on? – Yeah, they just ground the 14 trip liner ’cause they expanded the long-haul transatlantic market so quickly, you know?
– We’ve heard today that England is now over
flying to the United States, so where do they fly to? – With the Norwegian problem is, you know, they were really restructuring hard and hoping this summer,
it’s the traditional strong, revenue month to bring
them afloat and alive. And then now, for this summer, we just don’t see that happening, that strong travel-booking trend. – We’ll know in the next few weeks in regards to if they’re
going to make it or not. – I think the airline who have
their aeroplanes on lease, they’re going to have a harder
time than the companies, the airline who owns
their own aeroplanes . – [Sam] Right, that’s a very valid point. – Yeah, and because they
can restructure the loans versus the leases and all that. It’s going to be really challenging
for all of these airlines. – Yeah, well, shifting from Europe, there’s lots of airline also
going to hit hard in Asia, has already been hit hard. Like, you got Korean Air, you got Hainan Air on
the verge of collapse, which Hainan air was lucky
because the government in China, the Hainan province
government bailed ’em out. They haven’t even paid
the staff a couple months, they were running behind. And they cut out every flight because they had the coronavirus in China. Korean Air chairman sent
out a very strong message about the company’s unlikely to survive. You would think, typically, this is also an international carrier,
they will cruise over. But they parked 100 out of 145 aeroplane on the ground right now. All the A380s Korean Air
has been grounded, you know? LAX was their strongest station. Now, they downgrade to triple seven, and then down to one a day. – [Henry] The future of the U.S. airlines will greatly depend on whether or not the U.S. government provides any kind of financial assistance to that. The U.S. airlines have asked for relief from the federal excise
tax and a rebate on that. That is the tax people pay
on the tickets they purchase. They have asked for
government loan guarantees and no or low interest loans, and they are asking for cash grants. So, this is the going in state, of course, and it’s all subject to negotiations with the White House. If the government will provide
some cash to the airlines, the no or low interest
loans and loan guarantees, I think that will be sufficient to help most of these airlines. In fact, I think, really, all of the airlines stave off bankruptcy and continue operating. – There are three airline that definitely will be working non-stop again, which is Qatar Airways,
Etihad, and Emirate Airlines. – [Sam] So, you think the Middle Eastern are able to survive? – Definitely, they will
be able to survive. You know, they can just start immediately, right after, you know, this
virus situation is over. – I actually doubt, because Emirates has a 130-some A380 in their fleet. When the economy’s good,
A380’s making lots of money, kills off all the competition. But when the thing is, timing’s bad, you might be running 20%, 30% of capacity. Emirates has been so quiet, you just don’t know how badly
they got hurt right now. They are asking Airbus to defer the rest of the A380 beyond 2021. So, we might see they’re slowing down, building the last eight
A380 from the manufacturer. Now, talking about manufacturer, Boeing and Airbus has been it so hard. The stock price, I can tell you, Boeing, I mean watching has
fallen from 300 to 150, halved in a week. No new owners and also
Boeing has the extra pressure on the 737 Max, going to solve the Max.
– Right. – [Sam] And also, they have a back load, 300 planes they produced and parked. They got to resolve that
and getting the confident to travel public back on the Max first. Now, they got to deal with the coronavirus because people are saying now coronavirus could hit Boeing harder than actually the Max problem. That is insane. Imagine the magnitude of that.
– Amazing. – Thanks to Saudi Arabia, the overflow with the
oil pricing, the output. And all of a sudden, right now, there is so much surplus
all over the world. – From an airline perspective, like, the fuel cost is going
to be quite attractive for the course of the next few months. Most airlines today built
their business models around $100 a barrel. And you think about
what’s happening today, at roughly $26 to $32 a barrel, it makes the economics of flying lots of different aircraft
types pretty rational. And so, you’ll probably see
the profit of the airline, once the flu is over,
return pretty quickly because fuel price is so low. – They’re really two school of thoughts on the low oil price. Some people think low oil price can induce the older aeroplanes to
stay longer in the fleet. – [Anthony] That’s true. – So, the MD80s, the, you
know, the 757, you know, can stay longer and that’s
a good thing for us. Like, aft geek, right? – We always want to fly on a queen. We all want to fly
– Oh, yeah, you want to fly the KLM queen, right?
– on a KLM queen. – We have heard rumours, now, or maybe it’s already a fact that– – It is a fact that KLM, within
the next seven to 10 days, will be putting their 747s to bed and saying goodbye to them. – Now, that’s sad man. We’re going to
– Very sad. – [Sam] See them in Mojave,
in the aeroplane graveyard, the KLM 74.
– I think, yeah, I think when the KLM 747, they’re going to be landing in Mojave, the first person who’s going
to go up there is Anthony. And he’s going to steal
– Of course. – all their tray liners.
– All those tray liners. – Tray liners. – Virgin Atlantic as well,
the A3, 4600 is done already. And that’s brought ahead a couple months from the summer to now. Just lots of old
aeroplanes are, you know, out of the door because
there’s excess of fleets, of supply right now. John Dekker, I know for years. You are the corporate travel agent. – I am the air guru, Sam. I’ve fallen off a cliff. It is a disaster as far as sales are concerned and airline tickets. It is an absolutely disaster. It’s been going on now for about a month. Probably go on for another six weeks and then I expect us to climb out of it. – How much sales you made or how much cancellation do you have? – I’ve currently had
to take about $125,000 out of my pocket personally and return it to individuals.
– Whoa. – And as far as sales are concerned, I made $70.39 this week on commissions from aeroplane tickets. – You have never seen something
like this in your life? – Never in my life. 9/11 would be bad for us
here in the United States. This is much worse because
it covers the entire globe. – This week’s been really tough. I have lots of friends
been calling the airlines for a couple hours on hold because they couldn’t
get a hold of the airline because the flight’s been cancelled, they need to talk to
someone to get refund. Is there any good advice you
can give to these people? – The best advice I could give to them is continue to try to go down the ways you purchased your plane tickets. But if you come to the end of the line and there’s no way that you
can get a hold of somebody, you can always go back to
your credit card company and explain to them that
you’re not able to reach out to the person you
purchased the ticket from, and your credit card company, then, should credit that back
to your credit card. – Ah, that’s the trick. – That’s the trick. – Captain Talaat, you are the
owner of Pan-Am Experience and you’re in the movie
industry, Air Hollywood. So, how have you been fare so far? – To be honest with you, this is like the worst
experience in our lifetime as far as the company is concerned. We literally had to shut down every production that we have, including the Disney, Netflix, Paramount, Sony, all. The next two months, usually, we are booked two,
three months in advance. Now, we have zero, nothing is booked. All productions are shut down. But we only open for one
person and that’s Sam. And that’s why we open
the studio just for you. – That’s why when you have
friends at high places, you can have the whole aeroplane to film. And this is filmed on
Air Hollywood’s premises. – But it’s really, really hard– – So, Talaat, Talaat, did you see? Look, I just got this new
tray and tray liner from KLM. It’s pretty exciting.
– Oh, wow, look at that. – Look at the logo on there. – My God, Antony. – Sam, before you leave the plane, all of you, you need to wash your hand. And don’t shake other people’s hand. You should learn just
like the Japanese, bow. – [Anthony] No more touching. – [All] No more touching. – [Anthony] No more touching. – Aren’t we too close now? – We, six feet. How far are you? – Now, we’re like two feet. – Oh.
(Anthony chuckling) – You know, Sam, I got to tell ya, though, that we are resilient. And we’re all going to want to travel. It’s not going to stop. This is just a break. – The flu will end. People will stop getting it and everything will go back to normal. So, it’s a short-lived pain and we’re all just going to
have to weather the storm. But this one will be over soon. – Absolutely. I think that humans are resilient and the aviation industry has weathered through so many storm. And there’s always a strong comeback. So, I’m fairly positive we will ride through this storm together. I think up for landing. – I’ll fasten my seat belt.
– Oh, yes, let’s sit down. – [Anthony] Tray table up. (swooshing) (chiming) (popping) (aeroplane jets rumbling)

Stephen Childs

100 Comments

  1. About myself, obviously I've been impacted as well. However it is insignificant to those who are ill or lost their job or opportunity because of the virus. I have stopped all non-essential travel since end of Feb and advice you to do so. I am following the Covid-19 situation closely.

  2. this is really huge impact for the worlds economy….so sad year for everyone…

  3. “for those people who are not afraid of catching a flue” …….very irresponsible and ignorant statement right there…..airline fares ought to be the last consideration for travelling now – which ought to be avoided unless an absolute necessity. Absolutely ignorant……ugh!

  4. Covid-19 is wrecking the way we live. In Wuhan where the disease started the situation there has really improved and life there is nearly returning to normal. Whilst in Europe the situation has skyrocketed and lives and as I comment are being lost especially in Italy and Spain. At the moment times are tough but Covid-19 will be beaten. [email protected]£k the coronavirus!

  5. Agree on govt owned airlines but that is provided the govt doesn’t go broke.

  6. Shut Up, and start Being an Example, by wearing a MAsk, You be staying at Home!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  7. What a moron. Not aftaid to catch the flu. Ignoramous. Not funny. Immediate appology and retract this post now.

  8. This is not the correct time to encourage people to travel …… STAY AT HOME…. BE RESPONSIBLE

  9. What infuriates me are those moronic college people going on Spring Break's beaches and have complete disregard for the safety of their peers at home.

  10. At least these bailouts will come with strings attached. Unlike the Obama ones that lined CEO's and union leaders' pockets

  11. yup, 0.0006% of the population will be infected and the planet losses it's shit. I find it extremely funny and see an underlying plan being put into effect.

  12. Why the worst? Because nobody paid you to make a bias flight reviews? So bad sam, bad business tsk3

  13. I loaded this video thinking it would be useful and informative. What a load of garbage. Sam, stick to what your good at… Drinking mimosas

  14. "For those who are not afraid of catching the FLU???????" with a smile … sounds like he's one of them. Total Irresponsible comment

  15. This would be a good time for all airlines to rethink and revamp their services to entice customers back when the virus stops spreading and gets contained or better vanishes. Hotels also need to rethink their resort fees and parking fees. *Las Vegas especially)

  16. I agree with you Sam Chui I have to say that I feel bad for all the airlines as well as the passengers who can't travel because of this, stupid virus.

  17. We should not be bailing out companies with tax payer funds. Let the inefficient ones fail.

  18. Hello, my family business is in Travel Agency in Indonesia and we and other top 5 Travel Agency in Indonesia is having really tough times, our sales dropping almost 40 – 50% and we had to ask almost 60% of our staff to work from home with a decreased salary, and with heavy heart, some even being isolated on an unpaid leave, we have closed almost 10 of our retail store in the malls, very bad year for Aviation industry indeed.

  19. What do you mean ' for those not afraid of the virus, now is a great time to fly' how irresponsible. AND THEY ARE NOT SOCIAL DISTANCING. Disliked this video please.

  20. @samchui, do airlines have an insurance for loss due to grounding planes for the situations beyond their control and also why don't they have similar arrangements in place with their financiers and plane lessors?

  21. Sam Chui you are very knowledgeable about everything with the airline industry, I'm very impressed with your overall smarts with every aspect of the airline industry. You seem to have a good grasp of what's going on, add common sense and your someone I really feel gives and shares quality information.

  22. That guy with Adidas hat: Sir you are one of the most idiots I have ever heard, typical american ignorant !

  23. Can someone send me any link to some database that has information on breakdown of leases and ownership by airlines

  24. Im so glad this virus is here and crippling big corporations. Love it. The greed of humanity, governments and corporations has to be stopped. This is the earth getting rid of its biggest virus- humans. And hope it gets worse, only then we MAY learn!

  25. The flight ticket back to Beijing is crazy now, $3600 from NYC to BJ with only economy seat !

  26. Tbh the only part that was actually interesting to me was the butter landings in between the video no offence feel free to disagree but don’t spread hate on me

  27. God bless Trump's decision to block travel from China, this situation couldv'e been so much worse. #LatinosForTrump #Trump2020

  28. Qatar are a disgrace Sam. They have cancelled flights and are only offering vouchers as a type of refund. I had flights booked with Singapore which were cancelled and albeit 12 weeks approx to get my money back, at least they have guaranteed my refund unlike Qatar.

  29. I still see a screen full of flights in the air on FlightAware, scary as heck!

  30. You ate all shit and send to world in the name of power gain you guys killing your own innocent people with rest of all world. Poor Italy paid the price

  31. Dear FOLLOWERS,
    As most of the WORLD is being IMPACTED by the #COVID_19 SPEARD we should not wait in spreading AWARENESS of the VIRUS. Below are some LINKS which will not only let you know details of the VIRUS SPREAD but also GUIDE you to the BEST PATH.
    Please stay safe and FOLLOW all GUIDELINES given to you by the country you maybe in.

    Your Favourite Youtuber,
    Ryaed TALKS.
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/"Advice for public"
    https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public"Prevention of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) | CDC"
    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prepare/prevention.html

  32. If corona were truly dangerous, it would be played down, not made a global event. If it is not a flue, it is scam.

  33. I fly on Wednesday back home God willing. Pray I get there safely pls and don't catch Covid-19.

    God bless everyone.

  34. Boo hoo airlines are in trouble, but they will get a hand out from their govt’s, as renters in canada can not when forced not to work ass hats…

  35. Publishing a guest who says that there are bargains if "you're not afraid of catching the virus" is incredibly irresponsible!
    Sam, I expect better from you!

  36. So sad to see the airlines job crashing . True Emirates, Etihad and Saudi and Qatar will survive as they have the oil money. I am sure human will start travelling again.

  37. Fun Fact :
    When you got infected
    You still able to survive only if your body were Strong
    And the infected will gone in a few days

  38. Guys, my mom is in a situation between her residency visa expiring in june2020 and between needing to be in another country as much as possible in the meantime for family matters. Does anyone have any idea of the forecast/ predicted travel ban? (it's europe/middle east) Thanks for any hints

  39. I want to hear from a pilots perspective from the US airlines… If someone know about a video or has any idea of what they are experiencing, hit me up and reply here. THNX

  40. Worse video by Sam. Wuhan had 5 million leave town before Chinese lockdown. They traveled all over the world. Flagship lines will get rescued by their governments

  41. sorry but this is going to last at least 6 months and after it things will not be the same

  42. Sam, we all know that it is really bad situation right now. Stay safe guys..

  43. Yeah, Trump's government will only bail out the big boys, but ignore the 78 million people that needs help.

  44. China virus has messed all the avaition up..but Guess British Airways,Air India and Lufthansa are gonna ve relaxed cause they are the gov darlings..whereas Vrigin,Air Asia and private airlines will cry

  45. If the aviation industry had stopped all flights to the original effected zone. It wouldn’t be so bad for aviation. This is the industries fault they put profits before human life.

  46. Hello avgeeks! Feeling bored during quarantine? Please checkout my channel 🙂 Support towards my channel is greatly appreciated. Stay safe everyone!

  47. Let's the environment get a break from a damn pollution. Glad that you guys won't be able to fly 💪💪💪

  48. Trump wanted Norwegian, Europe and China in USA over shit hole countries. Then Covid19 hit their economy….recovery will take time in near future.

  49. you people are seriously worried about the airlines revenue…but as a human our priority must be eradicating the corona…

  50. Great time to buy into Airbus or Boeing stocks.. While they are low. They will bounce back up as always.

  51. I wonder why it will not survive. They can get through a year without flights because of other funds.

  52. A worst year for aviation but the best year for our planet, and may be a Chinese children would see the blue sky a first time in their life.

  53. How to have friends at high places? Surely that's a gateway to succeeding at a bigger life.

  54. Not only for aviation . The worst year for Mankind. Who knows we alive or not.

  55. Still blows my mind that flights to and from China weren't immediately halted after the first covid case was reported.

  56. many Airlines this year : No refund for flight cancelled, your ticket amount convert to credit and it have to use for rebook flight on before 31 March 2021 else it expire. Then increase flight price, paid more for rebook or give up the credit. Airlines still making sales during covid-19 period without flight or flight at high price. They scam passenger that had booked ticket on last year to fund them on their lost.

    Don't fall to this scam, don't accept convert to credit, airlines should refund for flight cancelled by airlines (the sales is not completed without flight the passenger to the destination). If they are sincerely need help they should not set expiry date on the credit, this expiry date make them can do sales without flight in covid-19 period. It need a win win situation for the business to continue, passenger may tolerate with unexpired credit but many airlines are looking on taking advantages on passenger lost to funding for their lost.

  57. We will get through this for sure. Thanks for making this video best of luck to you all in the traveling industry.

  58. I love norwegian, i so want them to get over it. Used that manny times from AMS tot JFK 🙂

  59. I am stuck in America trying to get back home to the UK I have booked and paid for two flights home had each flight cancelled and the refunds will take over a month to be processed !! Now the only flights available are charging thousands for economy but my two paid for cancelled flights have used up all my funds!!!

  60. "Charge back" is the term used by Credit Card Providers to refund customers who are in dispute over payments made…

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